You are playing a game where the player gets to draw the number 1-100 out of hat, replace and redraw as many times as they want, with their final number being how many dollars they win from the game. Each "redraw" costs an extra $1. How much would you charge someone to play this game? 10 Answers redraw 10 times and get the payoff around 77? the average draw will pay out $50.50 Show More Responses Every time when you are deciding whether to play once more, we consider the two options: stop now, then you get current number (the cost of $1 is sunk cost); continue, then the expectation of benefit would be $50.50-1=49.50. This means, as long as you have get more than $50 (inclusive), then you should stop the game. Suppose the game ends after N rounds (with probability (49%)^(N-1) x 51%, and in the last round, the expected number is (50+100)/2=75, and thus the expected net benefit would be 75-N . This shows N<=74. Then we take the sum: $Sigma_{N=1}^{74} (49%)^(N-1) x 51% x (75-N), which is 73. Every time when you are deciding whether to play once more, we consider the two options: stop now, then you get current number (the cost of $1 is sunk cost); continue, then the expectation of benefit would be $50.50-1=49.50. This means, as long as you have get more than $50 (inclusive), then you should stop the game. Suppose the game ends after N rounds (with probability (49%)^(N-1) x 51%, and in the last round, the expected number is (50+100)/2=75, and thus the expected net benefit would be 75-N . This shows N<=74. Then we take the sum: $Sigma_{N=1}^{74} (49%)^(N-1) x 51% x (75-N), which is 73. All of the above answers are way off. For a correct answer, see Yuval Filmus' answer at StackExchange: http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/27524/fair-value-of-a-hat-drawing-game Yuval Filmus proves that the value of the game is 1209/14=86.37 and the strategy is to stay on 87 and throw again on 86 and below.. Let x be the expected value and n be the smallest number you'll stop the game at. Set up equation with x and n, get x in terms of n, take derivative to find n that maximizes x, plug in the ceiling (because n must be integer) and find maximum of x. ceiling ends up being 87, x is 87.357, so charge $87.36 or more I guess the question asks for the expected value of the game given an optimal strategy. I suppose the strategy is to go on the next round if the draw is 50 or less. Hence, the expected value of each round is: (1) 1/2*1/50(51 + 52 + ... + 100) (2) 1/2*1/2*1/50(51 + 52 + ... + 100) - 1/2 (3) 1/2^3 * 1/50 (51 + 52 + ... + 100) - 1/4 .... Sum all these up to infinity, you'd get 74.50. This is all very interesting and I'm sure has some application...but to trading? I don't think so. I own a seat on the futures exchange and was one of the largest derivatives traders on the floor. Math skills and reasoning are important but not to this level. I would associate day trading/scalping more to race car driving i.e. getting a feel for what's going on during the day, the speed at which the market is moving and the tempo for the up and down moves. If I were the interviewer at one of these firms, I throw a baseball at your head and see if you were quick enough and smart enough to duck. Then if you picked it up and threw it at my head I'd know that you had the balls to trade. I know guys who can answer these questions, work at major banks, have a team of quants working for them and call me up to borrow money from me because they're not making money. At the end of the day, if you want to be a trader then...be a trader. If you want to be a mathematician then be a mathematician. It's cool to multiply a string of numbers in your head, I can do this also, but never in my trading career did I make money because in an instant I could multiply 87*34 or answer Mensa questions which...realistically the above answer is: it depends on the market as the market will dictate the price. You may want to charge $87 to play that game but you'd have to be an idiot to play it. In trading terms this means that when AAPL is trading at $700 everyone would love to buy it at $400. Now that it's trading at $400 everyone is afraid that it's going to $0. Hope this helps. No offense to the math guys on this page, just want to set the trading record straight. |