As America prepares to vote for a new president this year, how do employees really feel about the job market? And, how has employee sentiment changed over the past seven years since the last presidential inauguration during the Great Recession? Glassdoor’s Q1 2016 Employment Confidence Survey1 reveals answers and insights, as it tracks four key indicators of employee confidence: job market optimism/re-hire probability, pay raise expectations, job security and business outlook.
Job Market Confidence Near Peak Level
More than half (53%) of American employees (including those self-employed) believe if they lost their job they would be able to find a new job matched to their experience and current compensation levels in the next six months. This reveals the second-highest confidence in the U.S. job market since Glassdoor began its survey in 2009, up 14 percentage points from 39 percent in the first quarter 2009. Job market confidence is down one percentage point from the third-quarter 2015 (54 percent).
Americans Remain Confident in Pay Raises
Nearly half (46%) of U.S. employees expect a pay raise or cost-of-living increase in the next 12 months, which is up 10 percentage points from 36% in the first quarter 2009. Pay raise confidence is also down four percentage points from the third-quarter 2015 (50 percent).
Interestingly, more millennial employees (aged 18-34) expect a pay raise or cost-of-living increase (50%) in the next 12 months when compared to all other age groups. When comparing men and women, pay raise confidence among women (40%) falls well below men (52%).
Interested in how men and women compare in terms of pay? Check out Glassdoor’s recent report identifying 10 Jobs Where Women Earn Less, More and The Same.
Job Security Confidence Soars
Today, 14% of employees report they are concerned they could be laid off in the next six months compared to its peak, 26% in the first quarter 2009. Job security confidence is down one percentage point from the third quarter 2015 (15%).
When comparing men and women, employed men are significantly more concerned about being laid off in the next six months (17%) than employed women (10%). In addition, younger employees (aged 18-44) are more concerned about being laid off in the next six months (17%), compared to older employees: 55-64 (8%).
This chart gives you a better sense of how employee confidence has changed when comparing Q1 2009 to Q1 2016:
KEY EMPLOYMENT ISSUES FOR ELECTION 2016: How do different political parties view key employment-related issues with the presidential election coming later this year? Check out Glassdoor’s recent survey and blog post titled Top Employment Issues in 2016: Republicans vs. Democrats.
Read more from our Q1 2016 Glassdoor Employment Confidence Survey, including our survey supplement, which provides a detailed breakdown of results over the past 7 years.
1 Survey Methodology: This survey was conducted online within the United States by Harris Poll on behalf of Glassdoor from March 8-10, 2016 among 2,015 adults ages 18 and older, among which 1,050 are employed FT/PT or self-employed, 950 are employed FT/PT, 1,157 are employed or unemployed and looking for a job, 353 are self-identified Republicans (employed/unemployed but looking), 381 are self-identified Democrats (employed/unemployed but looking), and 323 are self-identified Independents (employed/unemployed but looking). This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimate of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. This survey is conducted semi-annually as of Q1 2016. Data is available quarterly prior to Q3 2015. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org