Recovery Stalling: Job Openings Drop 5.5 Percent in Last Two Weeks

Key Findings

• U.S. job openings fell to 4.6 million as of July 6, 2020. After rebounding at the beginning of June, job openings faltered, dropping 5.5 percent since June 22. As the recovery loses steam, declining job openings point to a fragile labor market, where economic progress will be overwhelmingly determined by progress against the virus.
• Job openings fell in almost all industries, but most industries are still above their lowest crisis levels. Consumer services (+10.9 percent month-over-month) and retail (+5.5 percent) are being buoyed by the strength of the initial recovery. However, public services (-4.0 percent) and tech (-4.5 percent) saw job openings fall to new lows.
• Surprisingly, Arizona (-2.5 percent over the last two weeks), Florida (-3.1 percent) and Texas (-3.2 percent) are among the states with the smallest declines in job openings, despite experiencing growing COVID-19 outbreaks. The escalating crisis raises the question of how sustainable those smaller declines can be.

The economic recovery is losing steam as COVID-19 cases surge around the country and employers pull back on hiring in the face of heightened economic uncertainty. Glassdoor's latest Job Market Report shows that, as of July 6, job openings have fallen to 4.6 million, a 5.5 percent drop over the last two weeks. Job openings bottomed out in early June and appeared poised to stage a strong recovery. But since then, the recovery has stumbled, leaving job openings down an anemic 25 percent compared to pre-crisis levels. The drop is likely exacerbated by an annual slowdown around the July 4 holiday, but even so, this seasonal drop appears to be slightly larger than in past years.  Ultimately, this data points to a fragile recovery. Despite early suggestions of a V-shaped recovery, slumping job openings are a reminder that the virus is firmly in the driver's seat of the labor market. A worsening public health crisis could easily derail an economic recovery that’s already struggling to find its footing. Based on an analysis of employer job posting behavior on Glassdoor, 35 percent of employers have reduced job openings since June 22. The percent of employers increasing job openings fell from 31 percent to 22 percent, which may indicate that the decline in hiring over the last two weeks reflects employers' hesitation to increase hiring in the face of economic uncertainty rather than a surge in hiring freezes or bankruptcies.

Change in Job Openings by Industry

The table below shows the percentage change in job openings over the last two weeks since June 22, when job openings were at their peak, and over the last four weeks since June 8, when job openings were near the trough.

• The decline in job openings over the last two weeks has affected all major industry groups, but the most affected are a mix of industries, including tech (-15.0 percent over the last two weeks), trade & transportation (-13.1 percent) and consumer services (-11.2 percent). The mix of industries signals that the impact is not just due to new cases of the virus, but also due to broader concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery.
• However, most industry groups are still above their crisis lows experienced during early June. For example, consumer services (+10.9 percent month-over-month) and retail (+5.5 percent) are still above crisis lows with the recent slowdown too small to overwhelm the overall rebound in job openings. As states began relaxing restrictions, these businesses were some of the fastest to reopen.
• Public services (-4.0 percent month over month), including government and education, and tech (-4.5 percent) have seen job openings fall over the last four weeks even as the rest of the economy recovers. State and local governments have been squeezed by increasing spending and declining tax revenues, requiring cuts in new openings. Tech had better weathered the earlier months of the crisis, but is now experiencing a more substantial slowdown.

Change in Job Openings by Industry Group Over the Last Two Weeks and Month-Over-Month

Industry Group	% Change - 6/22 to 7/6 (Last Two Weeks)	% Change - 6/8 to 7/6 (Month-over-Month)
U.S. Total	-5.5%	3.9%
Business Services	-1.9%	5.3%
Construction & Real Estate Services	-3.4%	3.0%
Consumer Services	-11.2%	10.9%
Finance & Insurance	-7.9%	0.0%
Food Services	-7.2%	0.4%
Health Care	-2.9%	6.4%
Manufacturing & Production	-5.5%	2.3%
Public Services	-5.8%	-4.0%
Retail	-3.8%	5.5%
Tech	-15.0%	-4.5%
Trade & Transportation	-13.1%	-0.4%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020

The chart below shows the trend over the course of the crisis for a few select industries. Note that office-based industries like business services, finance & insurance and tech had been trending well through most of the crisis, but are now near their lowest levels. By contrast, consumer services, food services and retail bottomed out in early May as states started lifting restrictions. For more detailed data on job openings trends by industry and industry group, see our appendix below.

Change in Job Openings by State

• All 50 states and Washington, D.C. saw a decrease in job openings over the last two weeks, ranging from Wyoming (-0.2 percent over the last two weeks) to Iowa (-16.8 percent), signaling that the economic slowdown is widespread.
• Surprisingly, Arizona (-2.5 percent), Florida (-3.1 percent) and Texas (-3.2 percent) experienced some of the smallest declines in job openings alongside growing outbreaks of COVID-19. Aggressive reopening in these states may be simultaneously mitigating the economic downturn and contributing to the spread of the virus, but the economic progress may be unsustainable if the crisis escalates and local governments are forced to reimpose restrictions.
• Remote job openings grew 5.0 percent over the last two weeks. While job openings around the country have stumbled, remote job openings have been remarkably resilient undeterred by both the ongoing public health crisis and the accompanying economic slowdown, growing 28.3 percent year-over-year.

States with Smallest Decline in Job Openings Over the Last Two Weeks

State	% Change - 6/22 to 7/6 (Last Two Weeks)	% Change - 6/8 to 7/6 (Month-over-Month)
Wyoming	-0.2%	8.2%
Arizona	-2.5%	6.9%
Michigan	-3.1%	11.9%
Florida	-3.1%	6.6%
Texas	-3.2%	6.0%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020 For more detailed data on job openings trends by state and for select metropolitan areas, see our appendix below.

Conclusion

The next several weeks will be a critical time for the economic recovery. The question is whether the worsening public health crisis will completely drown out the fledgling recovery. So far, the data suggests that the labor market is absorbing these headwinds, but the economy remains substantially depressed compared to pre-crisis levels and could slip into a deeper recession if the crisis spirals out of control. On the other hand, if the public health crisis improves, then the recovery could continue cautiously. However, the recent upswell in COVID-19 cases is a humbling reminder that the recovery remains fragile. The risk of a rollercoaster recovery, where rolling waves buffet the economy up and down, should not be underestimated.

Methodology

The job openings data for the selected dates is generated based on the methodology used in Glassdoor’s monthly Job Market Report, which provides a real-time view of hiring trends and wage growth across the U.S. based on millions of online jobs and salaries on Glassdoor. The data represents a snapshot of the number of job openings available on Glassdoor on the highlighted dates. Week-over-week, month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons are based on the Mondays from the comparable period. Except where otherwise noted, no additional smoothing, averaging or seasonal adjustment for job openings data is performed. Because no smoothing or averaging takes place, the data may not be directly comparable to Glassdoor's monthly Job Market Report.

Appendix

Table A: Change in Job Openings by Industry

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 6, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jun 8, 2020	Jul 8, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,633,830	4,701,894	4,460,649	6,016,013	-1.4%	3.9%	-23.0%
Accounting & Legal	30,596	30,829	30,947	55,100	-0.8%	-1.1%	-44.5%
Aerospace & Defense	55,862	57,499	59,353	80,011	-2.8%	-5.9%	-30.2%
Architecture & Civil Engineering	25,636	26,025	26,785	44,998	-1.5%	-4.3%	-43.0%
Arts & Entertainment	25,515	25,987	23,644	55,912	-1.8%	7.9%	-54.4%
Automotive	78,450	78,134	72,282	103,961	0.4%	8.5%	-24.5%
Banking & Financial Services	86,529	87,842	87,847	138,076	-1.5%	-1.5%	-37.3%
Beauty & Fitness	59,748	61,021	51,874	80,081	-2.1%	15.2%	-25.4%
Biotech & Pharmaceuticals	61,077	60,858	60,021	71,100	0.4%	1.8%	-14.1%
Business Services	7,417	7,502	6,858	12,755	-1.1%	8.2%	-41.9%
Computer Software & Hardware	96,769	99,814	108,224	153,317	-3.1%	-10.6%	-36.9%
Construction	57,017	58,727	56,730	71,420	-2.9%	0.5%	-20.2%
Consulting	54,760	56,640	55,971	80,837	-3.3%	-2.2%	-32.3%
Consumer Electronics	7,789	7,598	6,989	13,521	2.5%	11.4%	-42.4%
Consumer Services	14,092	14,206	12,703	13,950	-0.8%	10.9%	1.0%
Education & Schools	160,279	162,532	163,362	249,322	-1.4%	-1.9%	-35.7%
Energy & Utilities	31,735	32,755	32,417	53,088	-3.1%	-2.1%	-40.2%
Facilities	40,924	40,336	36,935	49,488	1.5%	10.8%	-17.3%
Government	114,806	134,884	125,408	124,902	-14.9%	-8.5%	-8.1%
Health Care & Hospitals	658,803	667,065	616,786	886,122	-1.2%	6.8%	-25.7%
Information Technology	100,698	104,640	105,648	149,084	-3.8%	-4.7%	-32.5%
Insurance	59,312	60,022	57,965	79,023	-1.2%	2.3%	-24.9%
Internet & Tech	90,529	78,888	87,651	56,500	14.8%	3.3%	60.2%
Manufacturing	155,772	158,055	146,060	235,165	-1.4%	6.6%	-33.8%
Marketing & Advertising	47,805	48,575	45,903	62,373	-1.6%	4.1%	-23.4%
Media & Publishing	11,197	11,210	11,710	29,458	-0.1%	-4.4%	-62.0%
Nonprofit	57,795	59,459	58,122	73,471	-2.8%	-0.6%	-21.3%
Private Security	27,669	27,106	20,129	27,197	2.1%	37.5%	1.7%
Real Estate	46,799	46,954	44,998	51,903	-0.3%	4.0%	-9.8%
Restaurants & Bars	447,886	466,911	446,114	621,317	-4.1%	0.4%	-27.9%
Retail	362,465	361,366	340,882	498,088	0.3%	6.3%	-27.2%
Supermarkets	87,791	88,663	86,231	97,224	-1.0%	1.8%	-9.7%
Telecommunications	22,720	23,339	23,348	38,977	-2.7%	-2.7%	-41.7%
Transportation & Logistics	213,394	225,932	216,008	304,142	-5.5%	-1.2%	-29.8%
Travel & Tourism	31,018	30,814	23,358	96,640	0.7%	32.8%	-67.9%
Wholesale	20,407	20,258	18,745	31,442	0.7%	8.9%	-35.1%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020

Table B: Change in Job Openings by Industry Group

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 6, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jun 8, 2020	Jul 8, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,633,830	4,701,894	4,460,649	6,016,013	-1.4%	3.9%	-23.0%
Business Services	168,247	170,652	159,808	238,262	-1.4%	5.3%	-29.4%
Construction & Real Estate Services	170,376	172,042	165,448	217,809	-1.0%	3.0%	-21.8%
Consumer Services	242,740	244,711	218,919	418,979	-0.8%	10.9%	-42.1%
Finance & Insurance	145,841	147,864	145,812	217,099	-1.4%	0.0%	-32.8%
Food Services	447,886	466,911	446,114	621,317	-4.1%	0.4%	-27.9%
Health Care	719,880	727,923	676,807	957,222	-1.1%	6.4%	-24.8%
Production	251,674	256,838	246,468	377,932	-2.0%	2.1%	-33.4%
Public Services	332,880	356,875	346,892	447,695	-6.7%	-4.0%	-25.6%
Retail	458,045	457,627	434,102	608,833	0.1%	5.5%	-24.8%
Tech	287,996	283,342	301,523	358,901	1.6%	-4.5%	-19.8%
Trade & Transportation	233,801	246,190	234,753	335,584	-5.0%	-0.4%	-30.3%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020

Table C: Change in Job Openings by State

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 6, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jun 8, 2020	Jul 8, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,633,830	4,701,894	4,460,649	6,016,013	-1.4%	3.9%	-23.0%
Remote	11,430	11,556	10,366	8,907	-1.1%	10.3%	28.3%
AK	10,207	10,498	9,423	12,482	-2.8%	8.3%	-18.2%
AL	63,703	66,129	62,405	77,601	-3.7%	2.1%	-17.9%
AR	35,431	36,230	33,097	41,115	-2.2%	7.1%	-13.8%
AZ	102,050	102,831	95,491	124,239	-0.8%	6.9%	-17.9%
CA	480,854	482,454	478,605	676,456	-0.3%	0.5%	-28.9%
CO	93,280	95,359	92,832	131,553	-2.2%	0.5%	-29.1%
CT	51,272	52,334	51,829	69,451	-2.0%	-1.1%	-26.2%
DC	32,542	33,675	34,152	44,943	-3.4%	-4.7%	-27.6%
DE	16,683	17,380	16,636	19,671	-4.0%	0.3%	-15.2%
FL	248,520	247,538	233,162	322,054	0.4%	6.6%	-22.8%
GA	148,164	149,781	141,030	199,276	-1.1%	5.1%	-25.6%
HI	12,617	13,140	12,101	19,453	-4.0%	4.3%	-35.1%
IA	47,256	51,983	49,037	58,130	-9.1%	-3.6%	-18.7%
ID	19,338	19,870	19,047	22,312	-2.7%	1.5%	-13.3%
IL	186,189	188,896	180,781	252,192	-1.4%	3.0%	-26.2%
IN	103,279	106,648	98,346	118,895	-3.2%	5.0%	-13.1%
KS	43,102	45,120	41,862	53,472	-4.5%	3.0%	-19.4%
KY	63,000	66,219	61,428	73,970	-4.9%	2.6%	-14.8%
LA	52,896	53,645	50,471	64,013	-1.4%	4.8%	-17.4%
MA	139,509	142,714	132,893	190,039	-2.2%	5.0%	-26.6%
MD	111,774	113,640	106,996	132,453	-1.6%	4.5%	-15.6%
ME	22,696	23,132	21,831	26,872	-1.9%	4.0%	-15.5%
MI	131,867	132,802	117,808	154,643	-0.7%	11.9%	-14.7%
MN	86,651	90,995	86,903	111,164	-4.8%	-0.3%	-22.1%
MO	89,165	88,433	82,771	110,897	0.8%	7.7%	-19.6%
MS	32,387	34,174	31,080	36,951	-5.2%	4.2%	-12.4%
MT	13,823	14,542	13,055	15,601	-4.9%	5.9%	-11.4%
NC	153,851	156,522	145,128	212,286	-1.7%	6.0%	-27.5%
ND	13,440	14,819	13,031	16,268	-9.3%	3.1%	-17.4%
NE	30,034	30,856	27,074	35,087	-2.7%	10.9%	-14.4%
NH	26,869	26,799	23,892	32,129	0.3%	12.5%	-16.4%
NJ	128,475	131,305	128,933	148,267	-2.2%	-0.4%	-13.3%
NM	33,302	34,539	32,412	40,662	-3.6%	2.7%	-18.1%
NV	36,039	36,405	34,274	50,482	-1.0%	5.1%	-28.6%
NY	219,177	224,492	215,593	306,532	-2.4%	1.7%	-28.5%
OH	169,985	173,608	160,566	214,436	-2.1%	5.9%	-20.7%
OK	45,677	47,959	45,571	57,893	-4.8%	0.2%	-21.1%
OR	53,251	54,047	52,097	73,840	-1.5%	2.2%	-27.9%
PA	204,547	206,865	196,965	237,546	-1.1%	3.8%	-13.9%
RI	15,003	15,504	15,237	19,639	-3.2%	-1.5%	-23.6%
SC	76,201	76,939	71,575	93,948	-1.0%	6.5%	-18.9%
SD	14,743	16,198	15,135	16,647	-9.0%	-2.6%	-11.4%
TN	97,382	100,008	93,002	129,389	-2.6%	4.7%	-24.7%
TX	358,478	360,287	338,054	475,879	-0.5%	6.0%	-24.7%
UT	41,121	42,742	40,231	53,280	-3.8%	2.2%	-22.8%
VA	157,734	158,643	150,735	200,934	-0.6%	4.6%	-21.5%
VT	10,894	10,811	10,319	13,164	0.8%	5.6%	-17.2%
WA	118,159	118,575	122,074	156,055	-0.4%	-3.2%	-24.3%
WI	86,191	87,343	81,098	109,157	-1.3%	6.3%	-21.0%
WV	28,192	29,069	28,375	31,170	-3.0%	-0.6%	-9.6%
WY	10,578	10,693	9,774	12,390	-1.1%	8.2%	-14.6%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020

Table D: Change in Job Openings for Select Metropolitan Areas

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 6, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jun 8, 2020	Jul 8, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,633,830	4,701,894	4,460,649	6,016,013	-1.4%	3.9%	-23.0%
Atlanta, GA	88,543	89,195	84,346	125,411	-0.7%	5.0%	-29.4%
Boston, MA	110,374	112,230	104,415	155,291	-1.7%	5.7%	-28.9%
Chicago, IL	145,695	146,853	141,110	199,743	-0.8%	3.2%	-27.1%
Houston, TX	71,610	71,800	68,540	100,729	-0.3%	4.5%	-28.9%
Los Angeles, CA	153,069	154,887	152,687	219,671	-1.2%	0.3%	-30.3%
New York City, NY	229,778	236,007	230,981	308,521	-2.6%	-0.5%	-25.5%
Philadelphia, PA	93,181	94,756	89,070	114,553	-1.7%	4.6%	-18.7%
San Francisco, CA	100,406	97,525	101,704	147,279	3.0%	-1.3%	-31.8%
Seattle, WA	85,069	84,729	90,445	115,780	0.4%	-5.9%	-26.5%
Washington, DC	141,380	144,570	141,077	185,860	-2.2%	0.2%	-23.9%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 14, 2020